Never Start the Wrong Player Again - Scoreboard Science: The Impact of Game Script on your Fantasy Team: Part 2

If you haven't read part one yet, make sure to check it out - I created a statistic called the DUP which measures the ability of players to perform well in different game script situations. I analyzed the best wide receivers and running backs last time. Today, I will be highlighting some under-the-radar players that show elite consistency, and some players who are heavily game script dependent. (If you're interested on how I created the DUP, I outlined my process in part 1).

The Consistency Kings

There were 21 fantasy players that received a DUP greater than -1% and smaller than 1% - highlighting elite consistency among different gamescript situations. Let’s dive into the three most influential names (excluding the players we already covered in part 1).

Brock Bowers

Bowers isn't exactly an under-the-radar player - It’s a well-known fact that Las Vegas Raiders TE Brock Bowers had a generational rookie season. However, his DUP just strengthens that point. Brock Bowers had 16% usage percentage on both trailing and non-trailing situations, resulting in a DUP of 0.1%. His 16% usage percentage led all tight ends in both situations, and he thrived despite playing in a poor Raider’s offense. In 2025, the Raiders added Geno Smith, a big upgrade at the quarterback position. They then bolstered the offense with superstar rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. This offense should be much stronger in 2025, and Bowers should continue to put up top numbers. 

Jonnu Smith

In an organization where every player seemed to be up and down, Jonnu Smith emerged as a superstar on the Miami Dolphins, putting up solid production week after week. His usage rate was 10.9% when the Dolphins were in a winning position, and 11.3% when they were trailing - resulting in a DUP of 0.4%. With nearly 90 receptions and 8 touchdowns, Smith was a top tight end option even as teammates Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had disappointing fantasy seasons. Smith proved his value in 2024 and should continue to be a sought-after draft prospect this upcoming season.

Chase Brown

After the departure of Joe Mixon last offseason, the Cincinnati Bengals needed a running back to fill the void - Chase Brown stepped in and immediately showed his impact, finishing the season with 990 yards and 7 touchdowns. More importantly, he provided consistent value: Brown had a usage percentage of 29.9% in winning situations and 28.9% in losing situations, resulting in a DUP of almost exactly 1%. Despite playing in a pass heavy offense, Brown showed his impact regardless of the game script and can be trusted to show similar results in 2025. 

Volume in Defeat: Player's Who Thrive When Their Teams Don't

The 2024 season saw 12 players with a DUP of -5% or smaller: players who dominated when down on the scoreboard. Let’s dive into who these players are and why this occurred.

Kenneth Walker

Of the 12 players, only 2 were running backs. Kenneth Walker of the Seattle Seahawks was one (Carson Steele being the other). This went against the standard set by the position - it’s unusual to see running backs receive more volume in trailing situations. Kenneth Walker’s usage percentage was just 18.5% when leading/tied, but shot up to 24.8% when the Seahawks fell behind. To investigate why this happened, I decided to take a look at the numbers of Zach Charbonnet - the second RB on Seattle’s offense. His DUP of over 10% confirmed my suspicion - Charbonnet’s usage percentage dropped from 24.9% to 14.8% when Seattle went down. 

Seattle seems to rely much more on Kenneth Walker in losing situations - he was a more productive pass-catcher, totaling more receptions in five less games. It’s not completely clear who is the RB1 for this Seahawks offense, but the numbers show that there is a clear trend on when each player is used. 

If you’re a fantasy manager with either Walker or Charbonnet, observe the Seahawks opponents before every week to determine who to start. If Seattle is heavily favored, Charbonnet may be in line for a big game. If they’re underdogs, it may be smart to lean more towards Walker. This strategy could win you many fantasy games if you have either running back on your roster.

Jerry Jeudy/Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton, one of the most overlooked stars last season, recorded a DUP of -5.5% His usage percentage reached 17.3% when leading/tied, but fell to 11.7% when trailing. This Broncos team was led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix and quietly had a very strong season, clinching a wild card spot. However, the offense played much more conservatively when in winning situations, hurting the production of the receiving corps. In 2025, Sutton is a strong fantasy option, but does seem to be somewhat game-script dependent. Fantasy managers should observe the matchup before deciding whether or not to start Sutton each Sunday. 

Kyle Pitts

Anyone who has played fantasy football over the past few years knows the frustration of Kyle Pitts. He gets hyped up every pre-season, managers take him high in the draft, and he has a very up-and-down season that does not return his draft value. Well, there may be a pattern in his production. Pitts had a usage percentage of 9.7% when the Atlanta Falcons were behind - not far from the top 10 tight ends - but this dropped to 4.6% in winning situations.

The Falcons have changed a lot over the past several years, and QB Michael Penix J.R. is set to take over the offense in 2025. For Kyle Pitts to become a top tight end in fantasy football, he needs to establish himself as a player who can continue to produce even when his team is leading. He can’t just rely on an all out passing attack when the Falcons are behind several scores and need to move the ball quickly. Until he becomes more consistent, I don’t see Pitts being appealing to fantasy managers anytime soon. 

Players Who Need a Lead to Succeed

A DUP of 7.5% or greater signals a player who produces efficiently when his team is leading, but tends to fall off when the rest of his team struggles. 18 players showed a DUP of 7.5% or greater - notably all running backs - and they hold immense fantasy implications. Let’s explore some of these implications to prevent you from starting the wrong guys in 2025.

J.K. Dobbins

A breakout star in 2024, J.K. Dobbins had a great year for the Los Angeles Chargers, reaching a career high 905 rushing yards. His DUP, however, was enormous - 18.2% (30.7% in winning situations, 12.5% in losing situations). This margin led all players across the league.

Dobbins played in an offense with superstar QB Justin Herbert and rookie WR Ladd McConkey, both of which are very talented players. When the Chargers fell behind, Herbert and McConkey were able to help the team survive. Unfortunately, this gave no room for Dobbins to continue to produce in difficult situations. His receiving upside was very limited and he relied on rushing volume and touchdowns. 

J.K. Dobbins signed with the Denver Broncos this offseason. As mentioned earlier, the Broncos tended to rely much more on their wide receivers in hard situations, which could continue to hurt Dobbins in fantasy. If Denver starts to fall apart in 2025, don’t be surprised when Dobbins’ fantasy value does the same. 

Rhamondre Stevenson

Rhamondre Stevenson was one of the most inconsistent players across the 2024 season - five games with over 15 points, five games with less than 4 points. The DUP may have uncovered why exactly this happens. Rhamondre Stevenson finished with a DUP of 11.3%. He had a usage percentage of 33.2% when New England was leading or tied, which was among some of the top running backs across the season. However, his usage percentage was just 21.9% when the Patriots were losing. 

The graph above perfectly illustrates Rhamondre's reliance on game script. In the 9 games where the Patriots won or lost by a close margin, Rhamondre Stevenson averaged nearly 14 points. In the 6 games where the Patriots lost by multiple scores, he only averaged about 3 points. The explanation why is simple. Rhamondre Stevenson is an efficient back who is trusted by his team to run the ball. However, he is not as important in the passing game, and tends to fall out of relevence in passing situations. It’s clear that Stevenson performs much better when the Patriots have a winning chance. In 2025, Stevenson won’t be drafted very high due to his inconsistency. However, if you can identify which games the Patriots are favorites and which games they’re underdogs, you might be able to snag some sneaky-high value for Stevenson in the later rounds of your fantasy draft.

Tony Pollard

Titan’s running back Tony Pollard has potential to be one of the best fantasy options available. He had an outstanding usage percentage of 42.6% when his team was leading or tied. This led the whole league, beating superstars such as Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, Pollard’s usage percentage dwindled to 25.7% when trailing, a metric that would not put him near the top players at his position. This results in a DUP of 16.9% - also one of the highest margins in the league.

Unlike the Seattle Seahawks, the Titans didn’t employ one running back in losing situations and another in winning situations - backup Tyjae Spears had around the same production of 11-12% in both situations. Instead, the Titans turned to their wide receivers - pass-catchers Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook Ikhine both had DUPs smaller than -3%. If Tony Pollard could prove to the coaching staff that he’s an effective receiving back, he could rise to the level of the top running backs in fantasy. Unfortunately, us fantasy managers have no control over that. If you draft Tony Pollard in 2025, make sure you observe the matchup and prioritize games where Tennessee is expected to win. You could snag some 20+ point games from Pollard if you play your cards right.