Does Derrick Henry disappear when losing? Scoreboard Science: The Impact of Game Script on Your Fantasy Team: Part 1

You confidently start your superstar running back, excited about the matchup…then his team falls behind by two touchdowns in the first quarter. The carries stop coming, the volume disappears. Before you know it, the player you trusted to carry you to victory has faded into the background. 

We’ve all been there - the guy who scored 25 last week has suddenly stopped touching the ball and finishes the game with a whopping 5.6 points. You stare at that loss for the following week, wondering what went wrong. 

You didn’t make a bad start - you just didn’t account for how quickly a player’s style changes as the score goes up and down. This post will dive into which players are game-script proof - and which players need a lead to stay alive. 

It’s been known for years now that running backs do best when their team is leading. When a team is winning a game, they want to waste time and prevent turnovers - a strong running game accomplishes both those goals. Conversely, when a team is losing, they focus on high-volume passing attacks and more aggressive playcalls - this can benefit wide receivers and tight ends. 

These principles are understood among the football community, but they don’t affect everyone equally: certain players can succeed regardless of how their team is performing. Similarly, some superstars become almost irrelevant in certain situations. My goal is to analyze which players can be relied on week-to-week, and which players are dependent on game script. 

The Process

The standard NFL team runs between 900 and 1200 offensive plays in a season - let’s say a thousand, for example. Of those thousand plays, 500 may be when the offensive team is in the lead or tied, and 500 may be when they are losing. My goal was to analyze every fantasy player in these two scenarios and identify players who perform at a constant rate, and single out players who show clear discrepancies. 

Using NFLfastR data, I separated all plays into two groups - one group for leading/tied plays (where the offense is winning or tied), and one group for trailing plays (where the offense is losing). I then tallied the amount of offensive plays run by each team in each group, then identified key fantasy players for each offense. NFLfastR provides a statistic called fantasy_player_name for every play run - this identifies which players scored fantasy points on the given play. I looked at which players scored fantasy points and which group these plays were occurring. I then divided by the total amount of offensive plays by the team in that group, which got me the use percentage.

For example, the above graph shows David Montgomery’s splits over the 2024 season. Montgomery, a running back for the Detroit Lions, received fantasy points on 156 plays when the Lions were leading, and 75 plays when the Lions were trailing. Detroit’s offense led for a total of 712 plays, and trailed for a total of 408 plays. Using these metrics, David Montgomery scored fantasy points on 21.9% of plays where the Lions were leading, and 18.3% of plays where the Lions were trailing.

To translate to fantasy implications, it’s safe to say David Montgomery is a good fantasy option regardless of how the Lions perform - he’s a major part of the offense in both situations. 

This isn’t true for all players - in fact, there are many fantasy superstars who actually disappear in certain situations. For each player, I subtracted the usage percentage of trailing situations from the usage percentage in not trailing situations, creating the DUP (difference in usage percentage). Using this statistic, I figured out which players tend to lose volume to gamescript and which players can provide fantasy value no matter the situation.

Top Running Backs

The above graph shows the DUP for the top 10 fantasy RBs in 2024, ranging from as low as 2% all the way to 16%. Let's take a look at the notably high outlier, as well as the two players who seem to show elite consistency.

The Risk of Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry scored fantasy points on 39% of plays when the Ravens were leading/tied - placing him as one of the best backs in the league. However, this number dwindled to 23% when the Ravens were losing - a 16% DUP. This is significantly larger than any of the other top running backs, and it’s no secret why.

Throughout his career, Derrick Henry has never been a pass-catching back. He thrived in situations where he could power over defenders or break free into space, and was the heart of the Tennessee Titan’s offense for many years. However, his receiving game isn’t very prominent. This trend continued when he joined the Ravens a year ago - Henry dominated in the running game, but not much else. Therefore, when Baltimore was trailing in a game and needed to pass the ball, Henry wasn’t a priority. 

The Ravens remain one of the best teams in the league and should be comfortably ahead for the majority of their games, keeping Henry as a top fantasy option. But in the few matchups where the Ravens aren’t favored, beware of the very real possibility that Henry doesn’t produce up to expectations. 

Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley - Script-Proof Superstars

Both Jahmyr Gibbs and Saquon Barkley had a measured DUP of 2% or less - less than half of the next closest player. They dominate on the ground game as well as being focal points in the passing attack, and don’t tend to lose reps/touches when things get rough. If the Detroit Lions or Philadelphia Eagles start off a game poorly, you know you can still rely on these workhorses to carry your fantasy team to victory.

Jahmyr Gibbs does split carries with David Montgomery, but these numbers show that Gibbs remains consistent regardless - Montgomery doesn't dominate the backfield in certain situations. As Montgomery approaches age 30 and Gibbs is still 23 years old, Detroit will likely place a higher emphasis on Gibbs going forward. Draft Jahmyr Gibbs in confidence.

Saquon Barkley, on the other hand, has no competition for carries at all. He just had one of the best running back seasons of all time, winning offensive player of the year and eclipsing 2000 rushing yards. His 40.4% usage rate when leading/tied is easily among the best in the league, and this rate only drops to 38.5% when losing - also among the best in the league. It's unlikely for Barkley to put up this kind of historic season again, but he is easily a top draft pick and arguably the best fantasy player in the league.

Top Wide Receivers

The wide receiver distribution is slightly different - receivers tend to receive more volume when the team is losing. The above graph is done by subtracting the use percentage while leading/tied from the use percentage while trailing, rather than the other way around - the numbers on the y-axis are actually the DUP multiplied by negative one. 

Several players stand out almost instantly, notably Amon-Ra St. Brown. Other receivers actually fall into the negatives, signaling that they actually receive more volume when their team is leading. 

Why St. Brown Dominates in Defeat

Amon-Ra St. Brown, star receiver of the Detroit Lions, shares the field with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery - arguably the best running back duo in football right now. Unfortunately, this results in Detroit having too many mouths to feed. In winning situations, the offense can take over games strictly by the rushing attack, leaving little room for production by pass-catchers such as St. Brown. This is why his usage percentage decreases by almost 10% when his team is ahead.

However, in the few instances where Detroit sees themselves behind on the scoreboard, the Sun God has a major uptick in volume. Gibbs and Montgomery may dominate the short yard situations, but St. Brown is the clear number one target for quarterback Jared Goff. 

Detroit led or was tied on the scoreboard for over 60% of their offensive plays, which makes you wonder how St. Brown finished as the WR3. The answer? Touchdowns. Amon-Ra caught 12 scores over the course of the season, only behind JaMarr Chase and Terry McLaurin. Whether he was truly a scoring machine or just lucky will remain to be seen in the 2025 season.

Whether It’s a Blowout or a Shootout, These WRs Always Show Up

Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb all finished as top 10 fantasy receivers this past season while also having a usage percentage difference of less than 0.6%. In other words, they put up consistent numbers no matter the scoreboard. 

Unlike Amon-Ra, these players don’t share the field with superstar running backs that can take over at any given time. No matter the situation, every team will still need to have a solid passing attack. Unlike Detroit, with many talented pass-catchers, these receivers are undoubtedly the top options on their offenses. 

The Dallas Cowboys did just add superstar WR George Pickens, so CeeDee Lamb could see a dip in volume - something fantasy managers should watch out for. But until then, you can confidently draft all of these players and start them week after week for guaranteed fantasy production.